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American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

American Financial Group, Inc.

AFGMarket cap $12BPrice $140.1

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorFinancials

IndustryInsurance

Sells specialty property and casualty insurance, covering everything from commercial auto to executive liability. Runs on underwriting discipline rather than flashy growth, quietly compounding profits for decades while most insurers chase market share instead.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+11%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+5%5

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-9%1

Rev CAGR (3y)+0%1

Rev CAGR (5y)+1%1

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+22%8

EPS Growth Y+2-4%3

EPS Growth Y+3+5%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin16%6

Net Income Margin12%6

Free Cash Flow Margin19%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA0.47

Efficiency

ROE20%8

ROA3%5

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+AVERAGE62

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)118

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)117

P/BV2.46

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd08

EV/EBIT Fwd08

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%8

Dividend Yield2.8%7

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-2%7

3 month return-1%6

YTD return+6%6

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh94%9

1 year return+0%5

Long term

3 year return+49%5

5 year return+49%6

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.57

Volatility19%10

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin19%8

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%8

Quality

ROCE5%5

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA0.47

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

AFGAmerican Financial Group

Revenue FY25$8.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK5 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+5%5

Revenue, next 1Y-9%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+0%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+1%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+22%8

EPS growth, FY27E-4%3

EPS growth, FY28E+5%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue grew 5%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 0.1%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 5%/yr vs revenue 0.1%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 4% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 95% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to hold flat over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 0.9%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE65 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-2%7

3-month return-1%6

YTD return+6%6

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high94%9

1-year return+0%5

3-year return+49%5

5-year return+49%6

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It's up 0.5% over the past year, now 6% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (-2%).

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+49% over three years and +49% over five), roughly average for the market.

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-1%) and so far this year (+6%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Mixed Momentum

Horizons disagree or sit near the middle of the pack. Momentum investors may want a clearer trend before sizing up.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on AFG. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

AFGAmerican Financial Group

Revenue FY25$8.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK5 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+5%5

Revenue, next 1Y-9%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+0%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+1%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+22%8

EPS growth, FY27E-4%3

EPS growth, FY28E+5%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue grew 5%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 0.1%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 5%/yr vs revenue 0.1%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 4% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 95% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to hold flat over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 0.9%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE65 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-2%7

3-month return-1%6

YTD return+6%6

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high94%9

1-year return+0%5

3-year return+49%5

5-year return+49%6

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It's up 0.5% over the past year, now 6% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (-2%).

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+49% over three years and +49% over five), roughly average for the market.

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-1%) and so far this year (+6%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Mixed Momentum

Horizons disagree or sit near the middle of the pack. Momentum investors may want a clearer trend before sizing up.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on AFG. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community