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Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Casella Waste Systems, Inc.

CWSTMarket cap $5.33BPrice $83.7

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryCommercial Services

Collects, hauls, and disposes of waste across the Northeast, quietly rolling up small regional haulers to build a garbage empire. Landfills are its real moat: once permitted, nobody's building a new one nearby to compete with you.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-2%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+19%9

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+14%7

Rev CAGR (3y)+10%7

Rev CAGR (5y)+9%7

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+980%10

EPS Growth Y+2+15%8

EPS Growth Y+3+22%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin5%3

Net Income Margin0%2

Free Cash Flow Margin5%4

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA3.13

Efficiency

ROE0%2

ROA0%2

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+WEAK30

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)641

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)441

P/BV3.44

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd144

EV/EBIT Fwd372

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield2.0%4

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-9%3

3 month return-15%2

YTD return-15%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh78%5

1 year return-9%4

Long term

3 year return+9%3

5 year return+5%4

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.29

Volatility35%6

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin5%4

Free Cash Flow Yield2.0%4

Quality

ROCE3%2

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA3.13

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

CWSTCasella Waste Systems

Revenue FY25$1.8B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG74 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+19%9

Revenue, next 1Y+14%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+10%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+9%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+980%10

EPS growth, FY27E+15%8

EPS growth, FY28E+22%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 74% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 19%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

Revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 22%/yr vs revenue 10%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

Revenue grew 19%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 10%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK17 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-9%3

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-15%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high78%5

1-year return-9%4

3-year return+9%3

5-year return+5%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

It's down 9% over the past year, now 22% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+9.1% over three years and +5.3% over five), behind 60% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-9%), over three months (-15%) and so far this year (-15%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Casella Waste. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

CWSTCasella Waste Systems

Revenue FY25$1.8B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG74 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+19%9

Revenue, next 1Y+14%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+10%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+9%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+980%10

EPS growth, FY27E+15%8

EPS growth, FY28E+22%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 74% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 19%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

Revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 22%/yr vs revenue 10%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

Revenue grew 19%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 10%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK17 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-9%3

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-15%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high78%5

1-year return-9%4

3-year return+9%3

5-year return+5%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

It's down 9% over the past year, now 22% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+9.1% over three years and +5.3% over five), behind 60% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-9%), over three months (-15%) and so far this year (-15%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Casella Waste. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community