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Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Erie Indemnity Company

ERIEMarket cap $11BPrice $217.8

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorFinancials

IndustryInsurance

Manages policy sales, underwriting, and claims processing for Erie Insurance Exchange without holding underwriting risk itself. This unique management-fee model lets it profit steadily from insurance operations while policyholders' subscribers bear the actual losses.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-30%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+13%8

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+3%3

Rev CAGR (3y)+2%2

Rev CAGR (5y)+2%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+19%8

EPS Growth Y+2+2%4

EPS Growth Y+3+2%4

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin18%7

Net Income Margin14%7

Free Cash Flow Margin13%7

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-0.310

Efficiency

ROE25%9

ROA17%10

Earnings Stability88

GEAR+AVERAGE64

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)175

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)164

P/BV4.63

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd125

EV/EBIT Fwd135

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%5

Dividend Yield2.7%7

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-10%3

3 month return-13%3

YTD return-22%2

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh67%3

1 year return-32%2

Long term

3 year return-25%2

5 year return+26%5

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.39

Volatility38%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin13%7

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%5

Quality

ROCE31%10

Earnings Stability88

Net Debt/EBITDA-0.310

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ERIEErie Indemnity

Revenue FY25$4.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK20 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+13%8

Revenue, next 1Y+3%3

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+19%8

EPS growth, FY27E+2%4

EPS growth, FY28E+2%4

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 13%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 70% of companies worldwide.8/10

WATCH

Revenue grew 13%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 2%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 2%/yr vs revenue 2%/yr).

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 80% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK12 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-10%3

3-month return-13%3

YTD return-22%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high67%3

1-year return-32%2

3-year return-25%2

5-year return+26%5

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-25% over three years and +26% over five), behind 60% of the market.

It's down 32% over the past year, now 33% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-10%), over three months (-13%) and so far this year (-22%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Erie Indemnity. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ERIEErie Indemnity

Revenue FY25$4.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK20 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+13%8

Revenue, next 1Y+3%3

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+19%8

EPS growth, FY27E+2%4

EPS growth, FY28E+2%4

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 13%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 70% of companies worldwide.8/10

WATCH

Revenue grew 13%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 2%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 2%/yr vs revenue 2%/yr).

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 80% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK12 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-10%3

3-month return-13%3

YTD return-22%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high67%3

1-year return-32%2

3-year return-25%2

5-year return+26%5

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-25% over three years and +26% over five), behind 60% of the market.

It's down 32% over the past year, now 33% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-10%), over three months (-13%) and so far this year (-22%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Erie Indemnity. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community