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National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

National Vision Holdings, Inc.

EYEMarket cap $1.33BPrice $16.8

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorConsumer

IndustrySpecialty Retail

National Vision runs America's budget eyewear chains — America's Best, Eyeglass World — selling glasses and exams cheap and fast. Roughly 40% of Americans don't get regular eye exams, and this company built its entire business chasing that gap.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-35%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+7%5

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+3%4

Rev CAGR (3y)+5%4

Rev CAGR (5y)+6%5

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+175%10

EPS Growth Y+2+22%8

EPS Growth Y+3+20%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin5%3

Net Income Margin2%3

Free Cash Flow Margin2%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA2.04

Efficiency

ROE6%3

ROA3%4

Earnings Stability33

GEAR+WEAK17

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)146

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)117

P/BV1.58

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd97

EV/EBIT Fwd165

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield3.7%5

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-1%7

3 month return-13%3

YTD return-35%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh56%2

1 year return-39%1

Long term

3 year return+11%3

5 year return-71%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.85

Volatility52%3

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin2%3

Free Cash Flow Yield3.7%5

Quality

ROCE6%4

Earnings Stability33

Net Debt/EBITDA2.04

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

EYENational Vision Holdings

Revenue FY26$2.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE45 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+7%5

Revenue, next 1Y+3%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+5%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+6%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+175%10

EPS growth, FY28E+22%8

EPS growth, FY29E+20%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 22%/yr vs revenue 5%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 45% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 5%/yr over the next 3 years, a little behind the market.4/10

Revenue grew 7%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 5%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 6%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK10 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-1%7

3-month return-13%3

YTD return-35%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high56%2

1-year return-39%1

3-year return+11%3

5-year return-71%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (-1%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+11% over three years and -71% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 39% over the past year, now 44% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-13%) and so far this year (-35%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on National Vision Holdings, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

EYENational Vision Holdings

Revenue FY26$2.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE45 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+7%5

Revenue, next 1Y+3%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+5%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+6%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+175%10

EPS growth, FY28E+22%8

EPS growth, FY29E+20%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 22%/yr vs revenue 5%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 45% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 5%/yr over the next 3 years, a little behind the market.4/10

Revenue grew 7%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 5%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 6%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK10 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-1%7

3-month return-13%3

YTD return-35%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high56%2

1-year return-39%1

3-year return+11%3

5-year return-71%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (-1%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+11% over three years and -71% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 39% over the past year, now 44% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-13%) and so far this year (-35%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on National Vision Holdings, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community