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The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated today

The GEO Group, Inc.

GEOMarket cap $3.94BPrice $30.5

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryCommercial Services

GEO Group runs private prisons, detention centers, and reentry programs across the US. It's one of the largest for-profit incarceration companies on Earth, banking on government contracts tied to immigration enforcement and criminal justice policy shifts.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+79%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+3%4

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+14%7

Rev CAGR (3y)+11%7

Rev CAGR (5y)+7%6

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+508%10

EPS Growth Y+2+27%8

EPS Growth Y+3+16%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin13%5

Net Income Margin10%6

Free Cash Flow Margin1%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA2.93

Efficiency

ROE20%8

ROA8%8

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+AVERAGE40

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)214

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)154

P/BV2.65

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd106

EV/EBIT Fwd146

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.7%3

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-5%5

3 month return+3%7

YTD return+89%10

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh92%9

1 year return+64%9

Long term

3 year return+256%10

5 year return+259%9

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.52

Volatility48%3

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin1%3

Free Cash Flow Yield0.7%3

Quality

ROCE11%6

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA2.93

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GEOThe GEO Group

Revenue FY25$2.4B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE64 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+3%4

Revenue, next 1Y+14%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+11%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+508%10

EPS growth, FY27E+27%8

EPS growth, FY28E+16%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue is set to grow 11%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

Revenue grew 3%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 11%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 27%/yr vs revenue 11%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 64% of companies worldwide.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's speeding up.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY STRONG89 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-5%5

3-month return+3%7

YTD return+89%10

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high92%9

1-year return+64%9

3-year return+256%10

5-year return+259%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Magnificent long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +256% over three years and +259% over five, ahead of 90% of the market.

It's up 64% over the past year, now 8% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+3%) and so far this year (+89%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-5%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Momentum Leader

Short- and long-term returns both rank among the best globally, and the stock trades near its highs. The market is fully behind it — a core fit for momentum strategies.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on GEO. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GEOThe GEO Group

Revenue FY25$2.4B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE64 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+3%4

Revenue, next 1Y+14%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+11%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+508%10

EPS growth, FY27E+27%8

EPS growth, FY28E+16%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue is set to grow 11%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

Revenue grew 3%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 11%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 27%/yr vs revenue 11%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 64% of companies worldwide.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's speeding up.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY STRONG89 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-5%5

3-month return+3%7

YTD return+89%10

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high92%9

1-year return+64%9

3-year return+256%10

5-year return+259%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Magnificent long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +256% over three years and +259% over five, ahead of 90% of the market.

It's up 64% over the past year, now 8% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+3%) and so far this year (+89%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-5%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Momentum Leader

Short- and long-term returns both rank among the best globally, and the stock trades near its highs. The market is fully behind it — a core fit for momentum strategies.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on GEO. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community