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GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

GFL Environmental Inc.

GFLMarket cap $15BPrice $42.5

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryCommercial Services

GFL collects and manages waste, recycling, and soil remediation across Canada and the US. It's grown from a single truck into North America's fourth-largest environmental services company through relentless acquisitions.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-6%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-1%2

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+17%8

Rev CAGR (3y)+16%8

Rev CAGR (5y)+13%8

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+10%5

EPS Growth Y+2+81%10

EPS Growth Y+3+29%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin6%3

Net Income Margin-3%2

Free Cash Flow Margin3%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA5.61

Efficiency

ROE-3%2

ROA-1%2

Earnings Stability22

GEAR+WEAK27

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)461

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)272

P/BV3.05

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd125

EV/EBIT Fwd282

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield1.0%3

Dividend Yield0.2%1

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-3%6

3 month return+2%7

YTD return-1%5

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh91%8

1 year return-6%4

Long term

3 year return+31%4

5 year return+8%4

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.48

Volatility29%7

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin3%3

Free Cash Flow Yield1.0%3

Quality

ROCE2%2

Earnings Stability22

Net Debt/EBITDA5.61

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GFLGFL Environmental

Revenue FY25$5.5B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG73 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-1%2

Revenue, next 1Y+17%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+16%8

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+13%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E0%5

EPS growth, FY27E+81%10

EPS growth, FY28E+29%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 73% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 16%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 16%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 13%/yr over five years.8/10

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 1%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Top-Line Rocket

A top-tier grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE51 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-3%6

3-month return+2%7

YTD return-1%5

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high91%8

1-year return-6%4

3-year return+31%4

5-year return+8%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+2%).

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+31% over three years and +8.4% over five), roughly average for the market.

It's down 6% over the past year, now 9% below its 52-week high. That is a touch ahead of the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-3%) and so far this year (-1%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Mixed Momentum

Horizons disagree or sit near the middle of the pack. Momentum investors may want a clearer trend before sizing up.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on GFL Environmental Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GFLGFL Environmental

Revenue FY25$5.5B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG73 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-1%2

Revenue, next 1Y+17%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+16%8

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+13%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E0%5

EPS growth, FY27E+81%10

EPS growth, FY28E+29%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 73% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 16%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 16%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 13%/yr over five years.8/10

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 1%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Top-Line Rocket

A top-tier grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE51 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-3%6

3-month return+2%7

YTD return-1%5

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high91%8

1-year return-6%4

3-year return+31%4

5-year return+8%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+2%).

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+31% over three years and +8.4% over five), roughly average for the market.

It's down 6% over the past year, now 9% below its 52-week high. That is a touch ahead of the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-3%) and so far this year (-1%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Mixed Momentum

Horizons disagree or sit near the middle of the pack. Momentum investors may want a clearer trend before sizing up.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on GFL Environmental Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community