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Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Goosehead Insurance, Inc.

GSHDMarket cap $1.04BPrice $43.7

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorFinancials

IndustryInsurance

Sells home and auto insurance through a franchise network of independent agents instead of underwriting risk itself. That asset-light model lets it grow policies faster than almost any insurer while collecting fees, not claims risk.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-35%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+21%9

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+17%8

Rev CAGR (3y)+17%9

Rev CAGR (5y)+31%10

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+175%10

EPS Growth Y+2+23%8

EPS Growth Y+3+41%9

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin23%8

Net Income Margin9%5

Free Cash Flow Margin19%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA3.13

Efficiency

ROEna–

ROA14%9

Earnings Stability77

GEAR+STRONG78

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)146

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)89

P/BVna–

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd106

EV/EBIT Fwd156

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%3

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-30%1

3 month return-23%1

YTD return-41%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh55%2

1 year return-36%1

Long term

3 year return-34%1

5 year return-74%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.67

Volatility64%2

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin19%8

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%3

Quality

ROCE25%9

Earnings Stability77

Net Debt/EBITDA3.13

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GSHDGoosehead Insurance

Revenue FY25$315M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY STRONG94 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+21%9

Revenue, next 1Y+17%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+17%9

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+31%10

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+175%10

EPS growth, FY27E+23%8

EPS growth, FY28E+41%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 94% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 21%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

Revenue is set to grow 17%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.9/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 31%/yr over five years.10/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 41%/yr vs revenue 17%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

Revenue grew 21%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 17%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK1 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-30%1

3-month return-23%1

YTD return-41%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high55%2

1-year return-36%1

3-year return-34%1

5-year return-74%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-34% over three years and -74% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 36% over the past year, now 45% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-30%), over three months (-23%) and so far this year (-41%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Goosehead Insurance, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GSHDGoosehead Insurance

Revenue FY25$315M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY STRONG94 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+21%9

Revenue, next 1Y+17%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+17%9

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+31%10

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+175%10

EPS growth, FY27E+23%8

EPS growth, FY28E+41%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 94% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 21%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

Revenue is set to grow 17%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.9/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 31%/yr over five years.10/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 41%/yr vs revenue 17%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

Revenue grew 21%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 17%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK1 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-30%1

3-month return-23%1

YTD return-41%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high55%2

1-year return-36%1

3-year return-34%1

5-year return-74%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-34% over three years and -74% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 36% over the past year, now 45% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-30%), over three months (-23%) and so far this year (-41%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Goosehead Insurance, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community