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Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

HCCMarket cap $4.88BPrice $92.4

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorMaterials

IndustryMetals & Mining

Mines and exports steelmaking coal, not the kind you burn for power. Warrior Met ships nearly all its high-quality metallurgical coal from Alabama to steelmakers in Europe, South America, and Asia, riding global steel demand rather than domestic energy trends.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+42%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-9%1

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+52%10

Rev CAGR (3y)+21%9

Rev CAGR (5y)+13%8

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+30%8

EPS Growth Y+2+10%7

EPS Growth Y+3+24%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin14%6

Net Income Margin13%6

Free Cash Flow Margin1%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-0.210

Efficiency

ROE10%5

ROA8%8

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+STRONG68

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)127

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)117

P/BV2.16

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd88

EV/EBIT Fwd127

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.3%3

Dividend Yield0.3%1

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-12%2

3 month return+19%9

YTD return+5%5

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh83%6

1 year return+46%9

Long term

3 year return+89%7

5 year return+280%9

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.23

Volatility51%3

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin1%3

Free Cash Flow Yield0.3%3

Quality

ROCE9%5

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA-0.210

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

HCCWarrior Met Coal

Revenue FY25$1.5B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG79 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-9%1

Revenue, next 1Y+52%10

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+21%9

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+13%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+30%8

EPS growth, FY27E+10%7

EPS growth, FY28E+24%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 79% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 21%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.9/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 21%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 13%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 24%/yr vs revenue 21%/yr).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 9%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Hyper Compounder

A top-tier grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

STRONG74 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-12%2

3-month return+19%9

YTD return+5%5

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high83%6

1-year return+46%9

3-year return+89%7

5-year return+280%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Magnificent long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +89% over three years and +280% over five, ahead of 70% of the market.

It's up 46% over the past year, but 17% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+19%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (+5%).

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-12%).

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Compounder

Dependable multi-year returns with a calmer near-term tape. A reliable long-term trend rather than a short-term breakout. The one thing to watch: the stock is underperforming over the past month.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Warrior Met Coal, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

HCCWarrior Met Coal

Revenue FY25$1.5B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG79 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-9%1

Revenue, next 1Y+52%10

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+21%9

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+13%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+30%8

EPS growth, FY27E+10%7

EPS growth, FY28E+24%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 79% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 21%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.9/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 21%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 13%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 24%/yr vs revenue 21%/yr).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 9%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Hyper Compounder

A top-tier grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

STRONG74 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-12%2

3-month return+19%9

YTD return+5%5

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high83%6

1-year return+46%9

3-year return+89%7

5-year return+280%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Magnificent long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +89% over three years and +280% over five, ahead of 70% of the market.

It's up 46% over the past year, but 17% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+19%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (+5%).

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-12%).

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Compounder

Dependable multi-year returns with a calmer near-term tape. A reliable long-term trend rather than a short-term breakout. The one thing to watch: the stock is underperforming over the past month.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Warrior Met Coal, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community