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Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company (HPG) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company

HPGMarket cap $6.61BPrice $0.8

Country🇻🇳Vietnam

SectorMaterials

IndustryMetals & Mining

Manufactures steel products from raw materials to finished goods, dominating Vietnam's construction steel market with roughly a third of national share. It's Southeast Asia's largest steelmaker, feeding the region's rapid infrastructure boom one rebar at a time.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-25%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-0%3

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+37%9

Rev CAGR (3y)+20%9

Rev CAGR (5y)+5%5

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+45%9

EPS Growth Y+2+14%7

EPS Growth Y+3+14%7

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin14%6

Net Income Margin12%6

Free Cash Flow Margin1%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA1.75

Efficiency

ROE17%7

ROA9%8

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+VERY STRONG90

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)710

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)510

P/BV1.29

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd69

EV/EBIT Fwd89

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield1.1%3

Dividend Yield2.2%6

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-7%4

3 month return-12%3

YTD return-14%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh77%5

1 year return-22%2

Long term

3 year return+21%4

5 year return-29%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.48

Volatility27%8

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin1%3

Free Cash Flow Yield1.1%3

Quality

ROCE16%8

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA1.75

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

HPGHoa Phat Group Joint Stock

Revenue FY25$5.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG70 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-0%3

Revenue, next 1Y+37%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+20%9

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+45%9

EPS growth, FY27E+14%7

EPS growth, FY28E+14%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 70% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 20%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 20%/yr from here.

WATCH

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

Earnings are set to grow slower than sales (EPS about 14%/yr vs revenue 20%/yr), so margins are under pressure.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue held flat over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Reaccelerating Grower

A top-tier grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

HPGHoa Phat Group Joint Stock

Total return Current230%

Price return Current214%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK16 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-7%4

3-month return-12%3

YTD return-14%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high77%5

1-year return-22%2

3-year return+21%4

5-year return-29%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-7%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+21% over three years and -29% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 22% over the past year, now 23% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-12%) and so far this year (-14%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Hoa Phat. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

HPGHoa Phat Group Joint Stock

Revenue FY25$5.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG70 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-0%3

Revenue, next 1Y+37%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+20%9

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+45%9

EPS growth, FY27E+14%7

EPS growth, FY28E+14%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 70% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 20%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 20%/yr from here.

WATCH

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

Earnings are set to grow slower than sales (EPS about 14%/yr vs revenue 20%/yr), so margins are under pressure.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue held flat over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Reaccelerating Grower

A top-tier grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

HPGHoa Phat Group Joint Stock

Total return Current230%

Price return Current214%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK16 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-7%4

3-month return-12%3

YTD return-14%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high77%5

1-year return-22%2

3-year return+21%4

5-year return-29%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-7%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+21% over three years and -29% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 22% over the past year, now 23% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-12%) and so far this year (-14%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Hoa Phat. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community