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Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Murphy USA Inc.

MUSAMarket cap $9.40BPrice $511.5

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorConsumer

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Sells cheap gas and snacks through thousands of small-format stores clustered around Walmart parking lots. That partnership drives massive foot traffic, letting Murphy USA undercut rivals on fuel prices while still turning a solid profit.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+33%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-7%1

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+37%9

Rev CAGR (3y)+8%6

Rev CAGR (5y)+6%5

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+44%9

EPS Growth Y+2-16%2

EPS Growth Y+3+3%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin5%3

Net Income Margin3%3

Free Cash Flow Margin3%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA2.04

Efficiency

ROE86%10

ROA13%9

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+AVERAGE60

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)175

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)174

P/BV12.01

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd106

EV/EBIT Fwd137

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield5.8%7

Dividend Yield0.5%2

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-1%7

3 month return-16%2

YTD return+27%8

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh81%5

1 year return+37%8

Long term

3 year return+46%5

5 year return+210%9

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta-0.010

Volatility40%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin3%3

Free Cash Flow Yield5.8%7

Quality

ROCE25%9

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA2.04

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

MUSAMurphy USA

Revenue FY25$19.4B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE51 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-7%1

Revenue, next 1Y+37%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+6%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+44%9

EPS growth, FY27E-16%2

EPS growth, FY28E+3%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 8%/yr from here.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 51% of companies worldwide.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 6%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 3%/yr vs revenue 8%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 16% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 7%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Reaccelerating Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE53 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-1%7

3-month return-16%2

YTD return+27%8

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high81%5

1-year return+37%8

3-year return+46%5

5-year return+210%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +46% over three years and +210% over five, ahead of 60% of the market.

It's up 37% over the past year, but 19% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (-1%) and so far this year (+27%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over three months (-16%).

BOTTOM LINE

Momentum Leader

Short- and long-term returns both rank among the best globally. The market is behind it — a core fit for momentum strategies. The one thing to watch: the stock is underperforming over three months.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Murphy USA Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

MUSAMurphy USA

Revenue FY25$19.4B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE51 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-7%1

Revenue, next 1Y+37%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+6%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+44%9

EPS growth, FY27E-16%2

EPS growth, FY28E+3%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 8%/yr from here.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 51% of companies worldwide.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 6%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 3%/yr vs revenue 8%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 16% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 7%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Reaccelerating Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE53 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-1%7

3-month return-16%2

YTD return+27%8

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high81%5

1-year return+37%8

3-year return+46%5

5-year return+210%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +46% over three years and +210% over five, ahead of 60% of the market.

It's up 37% over the past year, but 19% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (-1%) and so far this year (+27%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over three months (-16%).

BOTTOM LINE

Momentum Leader

Short- and long-term returns both rank among the best globally. The market is behind it — a core fit for momentum strategies. The one thing to watch: the stock is underperforming over three months.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Murphy USA Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community