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The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated today

The Progressive Corporation

PGRMarket cap $127BPrice $218.7

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorFinancials

IndustryInsurance

Sells auto insurance directly to consumers, cutting out traditional agents to offer competitive rates. Their "Flo" advertising campaign has made them the second-largest car insurer in America behind State Farm.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+3%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+21%9

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-0%2

Rev CAGR (3y)+3%3

Rev CAGR (5y)+8%6

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-3%3

EPS Growth Y+2-12%3

EPS Growth Y+3-1%3

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin17%6

Net Income Margin13%6

Free Cash Flow Margin18%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA0.57

Efficiency

ROE35%9

ROA10%8

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+STRONG84

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)137

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)135

P/BV3.74

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd27

EV/EBIT Fwd47

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%9

Dividend Yield0.2%1

Momentum

Short term

1 month return+2%8

3 month return-5%5

YTD return+2%5

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh91%9

1 year return-4%4

Long term

3 year return+67%6

5 year return+169%9

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.48

Volatility27%8

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin18%8

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%9

Quality

ROCE37%8

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA0.57

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

PGRThe Progressive

Revenue FY25$87.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK32 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+21%9

Revenue, next 1Y-0%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+3%3

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+8%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-3%3

EPS growth, FY27E-12%3

EPS growth, FY28E-1%3

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 21%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

WATCH

Revenue is set to grow 3%/yr over the next 3 years, a little behind the market.4/10

Revenue grew 21%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 3%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 8%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 68% of companies worldwide.

Earnings are set to fall even as revenue grows (EPS about -3%/yr vs revenue 3%/yr).

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: earnings are forecast to fall.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

STRONG73 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return+2%8

3-month return-5%5

YTD return+2%5

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high91%9

1-year return-4%4

3-year return+67%6

5-year return+169%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +67% over three years and +169% over five, ahead of 70% of the market.

It's down 4% over the past year, now 9% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+2%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-5%) and so far this year (+2%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Compounder

Dependable multi-year returns and the stock sits near its highs. A reliable trend, if not the single hottest name in the market.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Progressive Corp. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

PGRThe Progressive

Revenue FY25$87.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK32 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+21%9

Revenue, next 1Y-0%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+3%3

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+8%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-3%3

EPS growth, FY27E-12%3

EPS growth, FY28E-1%3

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 21%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

WATCH

Revenue is set to grow 3%/yr over the next 3 years, a little behind the market.4/10

Revenue grew 21%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 3%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 8%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 68% of companies worldwide.

Earnings are set to fall even as revenue grows (EPS about -3%/yr vs revenue 3%/yr).

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: earnings are forecast to fall.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

STRONG73 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return+2%8

3-month return-5%5

YTD return+2%5

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high91%9

1-year return-4%4

3-year return+67%6

5-year return+169%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +67% over three years and +169% over five, ahead of 70% of the market.

It's down 4% over the past year, now 9% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+2%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-5%) and so far this year (+2%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Compounder

Dependable multi-year returns and the stock sits near its highs. A reliable trend, if not the single hottest name in the market.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Progressive Corp. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community