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Serco Group plc (SEO) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Serco Group plc

SEOMarket cap $3.19BPrice $3.3

Country🇬🇧United Kingdom

SectorIndustrials

IndustryCommercial Services

Runs public services governments don't want to handle themselves — prisons, defense support, immigration processing, and healthcare logistics. Serco quietly operates critical infrastructure across five continents, betting that outsourcing bureaucracy is one trend that never goes out of style.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+0%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+6%5

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+1%3

Rev CAGR (3y)+4%3

Rev CAGR (5y)+5%4

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+32%9

EPS Growth Y+2+5%5

EPS Growth Y+3+8%6

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin4%2

Net Income Margin3%3

Free Cash Flow Margin8%5

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA1.65

Efficiency

ROE18%7

ROA5%6

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+AVERAGE55

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)137

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)117

P/BV2.85

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd69

EV/EBIT Fwd108

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield17.0%10

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-0%8

3 month return+8%8

YTD return-7%4

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh78%5

1 year return+8%6

Long term

3 year return+92%7

5 year return+116%8

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.48

Volatility27%8

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin8%5

Free Cash Flow Yield17.0%10

Quality

ROCE12%6

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA1.65

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

SEOSerco Group

Revenue FY25$6.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK29 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+6%5

Revenue, next 1Y+1%3

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+4%3

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%4

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+32%9

EPS growth, FY27E+5%5

EPS growth, FY28E+8%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 8%/yr vs revenue 4%/yr).

WATCH

Revenue grew 6%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 4%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, behind 60% of companies worldwide.4/10

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 71% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 4%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

Growth is a weak point here. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

SEOSerco Group

Total return Current103%

Price return Current88.9%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

STRONG74 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-0%8

3-month return+8%8

YTD return-7%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high78%5

1-year return+8%6

3-year return+92%7

5-year return+116%8

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +92% over three years and +116% over five, ahead of 70% of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+0%) and over three months (+8%).

WATCH

It's up 8% over the past year, but 22% below its 52-week high. That is a touch ahead of the market.

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (-7%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Momentum Leader

Short- and long-term returns both rank among the best globally. The market is behind it — a core fit for momentum strategies.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Serco Group plc. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

SEOSerco Group

Revenue FY25$6.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK29 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+6%5

Revenue, next 1Y+1%3

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+4%3

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%4

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+32%9

EPS growth, FY27E+5%5

EPS growth, FY28E+8%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 8%/yr vs revenue 4%/yr).

WATCH

Revenue grew 6%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 4%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, behind 60% of companies worldwide.4/10

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 71% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 4%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

Growth is a weak point here. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

SEOSerco Group

Total return Current103%

Price return Current88.9%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

STRONG74 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-0%8

3-month return+8%8

YTD return-7%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high78%5

1-year return+8%6

3-year return+92%7

5-year return+116%8

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +92% over three years and +116% over five, ahead of 70% of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+0%) and over three months (+8%).

WATCH

It's up 8% over the past year, but 22% below its 52-week high. That is a touch ahead of the market.

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (-7%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Momentum Leader

Short- and long-term returns both rank among the best globally. The market is behind it — a core fit for momentum strategies.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Serco Group plc. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community