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The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

SMGMarket cap $2.88BPrice $49.4

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorMaterials

IndustryChemicals

Makes the lawn and garden products that dominate American backyards — Miracle-Gro, Ortho, and Roundup licensing among them. Controls roughly half the U.S. consumer lawn care market, turning suburban grass obsession into billions of dollars in annual revenue.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-6%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-5%2

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-4%2

Rev CAGR (3y)+0%1

Rev CAGR (5y)+2%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+82%10

EPS Growth Y+2+6%6

EPS Growth Y+3+7%6

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin13%6

Net Income Margin2%3

Free Cash Flow Margin8%5

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA3.82

Efficiency

ROEna–

ROA2%4

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+WEAK17

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)118

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)108

P/BVna–

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd97

EV/EBIT Fwd118

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield9.2%9

Dividend Yield5.3%10

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-14%1

3 month return-23%1

YTD return-13%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh66%3

1 year return-13%3

Long term

3 year return+19%4

5 year return-59%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.67

Volatility37%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin8%5

Free Cash Flow Yield9.2%9

Quality

ROCE21%9

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA3.82

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

SMGThe Scotts Miracle-Gro

Revenue FY25$3.4B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK9 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-5%2

Revenue, next 1Y-4%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+0%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+82%10

EPS growth, FY27E+6%6

EPS growth, FY28E+7%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 7%/yr vs revenue 0.2%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to hold flat from here.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 91% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 5%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Revenue is set to hold flat over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK6 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-14%1

3-month return-23%1

YTD return-13%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high66%3

1-year return-13%3

3-year return+19%4

5-year return-59%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+19% over three years and -59% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 13% over the past year, now 34% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-14%), over three months (-23%) and so far this year (-13%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

SMGThe Scotts Miracle-Gro

Revenue FY25$3.4B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK9 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-5%2

Revenue, next 1Y-4%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+0%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+82%10

EPS growth, FY27E+6%6

EPS growth, FY28E+7%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 7%/yr vs revenue 0.2%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to hold flat from here.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 91% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 5%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Revenue is set to hold flat over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK6 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-14%1

3-month return-23%1

YTD return-13%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high66%3

1-year return-13%3

3-year return+19%4

5-year return-59%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+19% over three years and -59% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 13% over the past year, now 34% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-14%), over three months (-23%) and so far this year (-13%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community