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Transurban Group (TCL) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Transurban Group

TCLMarket cap $28BPrice $9.1

Country🇦🇺Australia

SectorIndustrials

IndustryTransport Infrastructure

Owns and operates toll roads across Australia, the US, and Canada, collecting fees from millions of daily commuters. Its Melbourne and Sydney motorways are so essential that traffic barely dips even when prices rise.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-3%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-1%3

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+1%3

Rev CAGR (3y)+2%2

Rev CAGR (5y)+5%5

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+20%8

EPS Growth Y+2+17%8

EPS Growth Y+3-39%2

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin30%9

Net Income Margin9%5

Free Cash Flow Margin41%10

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA8.11

Efficiency

ROE4%3

ROA1%3

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+WEAK34

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)941

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)1311

P/BV5.33

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd202

EV/EBIT Fwd362

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield4.0%6

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-5%5

3 month return-11%3

YTD return-6%4

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh85%6

1 year return-3%4

Long term

3 year return+20%4

5 year return+16%4

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta-0.010

Volatility16%10

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin41%10

Free Cash Flow Yield4.0%6

Quality

ROCE4%3

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA8.11

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TCLTransurban

Revenue FY26$2.7B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK23 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-1%3

Revenue, next 1Y+1%3

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+20%8

EPS growth, FY28E+17%8

EPS growth, FY29E-39%2

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 2%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 17%/yr vs revenue 2%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 39% in year 3.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 77% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 0.9%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

TCLTransurban

Total return Current36.1%

Price return Current−0.3%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK30 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-5%5

3-month return-11%3

YTD return-6%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high85%6

1-year return-3%4

3-year return+20%4

5-year return+16%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+20% over three years and +16% over five), roughly average for the market.

It's down 3% over the past year, now 15% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-5%) and so far this year (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over three months (-11%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the stock is underperforming over three months.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Transurban Group. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TCLTransurban

Revenue FY26$2.7B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK23 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-1%3

Revenue, next 1Y+1%3

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+20%8

EPS growth, FY28E+17%8

EPS growth, FY29E-39%2

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 2%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 17%/yr vs revenue 2%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 39% in year 3.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 77% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 0.9%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

TCLTransurban

Total return Current36.1%

Price return Current−0.3%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK30 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-5%5

3-month return-11%3

YTD return-6%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high85%6

1-year return-3%4

3-year return+20%4

5-year return+16%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+20% over three years and +16% over five), roughly average for the market.

It's down 3% over the past year, now 15% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-5%) and so far this year (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over three months (-11%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Transurban Group. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community