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Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

UPSTMarket cap $2.32BPrice $23.9

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorFinancials

IndustryConsumer Finance

Uses AI to judge creditworthiness instead of traditional credit scores, letting banks approve loans that FICO would reject. Its algorithm claims fewer defaults and more approvals simultaneously — a bet that machine learning beats decades-old credit scoring.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-49%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+8%6

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+31%9

Rev CAGR (3y)+27%10

Rev CAGR (5y)+34%10

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+462%10

EPS Growth Y+2+61%10

EPS Growth Y+3+34%9

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin7%4

Net Income Margin5%3

Free Cash Flow Margin-22%2

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA12.11

Efficiency

ROE8%4

ROA2%4

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+AVERAGE51

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)710

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)410

P/BV2.95

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd1310

EV/EBIT Fwd5410

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%3

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-15%1

3 month return-28%1

YTD return-45%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh43%1

1 year return-54%1

Long term

3 year return-13%2

5 year return-92%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta3.61

Volatility65%2

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin-22%2

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%3

Quality

ROCE3%4

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA12.11

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

UPSTUpstart Holdings

Revenue FY25$1.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY STRONG96 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 1Y+31%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+27%10

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+34%10

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+462%10

EPS growth, FY27E+61%10

EPS growth, FY28E+34%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 96% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 27%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.10/10

Revenue grew 8%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 27%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 34%/yr over five years.10/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 61%/yr vs revenue 27%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Hyper Compounder

A top-tier grower that's speeding up.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK1 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-15%1

3-month return-28%1

YTD return-45%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high43%1

1-year return-54%1

3-year return-13%2

5-year return-92%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-13% over three years and -92% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 54% over the past year, now 57% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-15%), over three months (-28%) and so far this year (-45%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Upstart Holdings, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

UPSTUpstart Holdings

Revenue FY25$1.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY STRONG96 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 1Y+31%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+27%10

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+34%10

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+462%10

EPS growth, FY27E+61%10

EPS growth, FY28E+34%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 96% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 27%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.10/10

Revenue grew 8%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 27%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 34%/yr over five years.10/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 61%/yr vs revenue 27%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Hyper Compounder

A top-tier grower that's speeding up.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK1 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-15%1

3-month return-28%1

YTD return-45%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high43%1

1-year return-54%1

3-year return-13%2

5-year return-92%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-13% over three years and -92% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 54% over the past year, now 57% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-15%), over three months (-28%) and so far this year (-45%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Upstart Holdings, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community