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Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Waste Connections, Inc.

WCNMarket cap $39BPrice $154.6

Country🇨🇦Canada

SectorIndustrials

IndustryCommercial Services

Collects and processes garbage and recyclables across North America through a network of local hauling routes and disposal facilities. Controls landfills that generate decades of revenue from a single piece of land.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-10%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+9%7

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+6%5

Rev CAGR (3y)+6%4

Rev CAGR (5y)+6%5

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+138%10

EPS Growth Y+2+9%6

EPS Growth Y+3+10%6

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin19%7

Net Income Margin11%6

Free Cash Flow Margin12%6

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA3.03

Efficiency

ROE13%6

ROA5%6

Earnings Stability77

GEAR+AVERAGE61

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)263

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)232

P/BV4.93

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd154

EV/EBIT Fwd253

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield3.1%5

Dividend Yield0.9%3

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-6%4

3 month return-10%3

YTD return-11%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh87%7

1 year return-10%3

Long term

3 year return+16%4

5 year return+25%5

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.110

Volatility23%9

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin12%6

Free Cash Flow Yield3.1%5

Quality

ROCE10%5

Earnings Stability77

Net Debt/EBITDA3.03

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

WCNWaste Connections

Revenue FY25$8.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE46 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+9%7

Revenue, next 1Y+6%5

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+6%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+6%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+138%10

EPS growth, FY27E+9%6

EPS growth, FY28E+10%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 9%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 60% of companies worldwide.7/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 10%/yr vs revenue 6%/yr).

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 46% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 6%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

Revenue grew 9%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 6%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 6%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

WCNWaste Connections

Total return Current339%

Price return Current312%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK30 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%4

3-month return-10%3

YTD return-11%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high87%7

1-year return-10%3

3-year return+16%4

5-year return+25%5

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+16% over three years and +25% over five), roughly average for the market.

It's down 10% over the past year, now 13% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over three months (-10%) and so far this year (-11%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the stock is underperforming over three months and so far this year.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Waste Connections. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

WCNWaste Connections

Revenue FY25$8.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE46 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+9%7

Revenue, next 1Y+6%5

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+6%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+6%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+138%10

EPS growth, FY27E+9%6

EPS growth, FY28E+10%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 9%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 60% of companies worldwide.7/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 10%/yr vs revenue 6%/yr).

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 46% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 6%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

Revenue grew 9%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 6%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 6%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

WCNWaste Connections

Total return Current339%

Price return Current312%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK30 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%4

3-month return-10%3

YTD return-11%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high87%7

1-year return-10%3

3-year return+16%4

5-year return+25%5

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+16% over three years and +25% over five), roughly average for the market.

It's down 10% over the past year, now 13% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over three months (-10%) and so far this year (-11%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Waste Connections. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community