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Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Exzeo Group, Inc.

XZOMarket cap $1.37BPrice $15.2

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorFinancials

IndustryInsurance

Builds insurance technology and underwrites property coverage for homeowners in catastrophe-prone states like Florida. Uses proprietary software to price risk faster than legacy insurers, betting that data beats guesswork in the riskiest markets in America.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-7%

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+69%10

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+2%3

Rev CAGR (3y)+10%7

Rev CAGR (5y)+8%7

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+5%5

EPS Growth Y+2+19%8

EPS Growth Y+3+16%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin50%10

Net Income Margin38%10

Free Cash Flow Margin35%9

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-1.110

Efficiency

ROE49%10

ROA32%10

Earnings Stability88

GEAR+STRONG81

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)137

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)117

P/BV4.83

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd97

EV/EBIT Fwd97

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%7

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-6%5

3 month return-13%3

YTD return-37%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh62%2

1 year return-28%2

Long term

3 year return-28%1

5 year return-28%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Betana–

Volatility63%2

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin35%9

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%7

Quality

ROCE64%10

Earnings Stability88

Net Debt/EBITDA-1.110

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

XZOExzeo Group

Revenue FY25$221M

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE64 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+69%10

Revenue, next 1Y+2%3

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+10%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+8%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+5%5

EPS growth, FY27E+19%8

EPS growth, FY28E+16%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 69%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 16%/yr vs revenue 10%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 64% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Revenue grew 69%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 10%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%5

3-month return-13%3

YTD return-37%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high62%2

1-year return-28%2

3-year return-28%1

5-year return-28%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-28% over three years and -28% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 28% over the past year, now 38% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-13%) and so far this year (-37%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Exzeo Group, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

XZOExzeo Group

Revenue FY25$221M

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE64 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+69%10

Revenue, next 1Y+2%3

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+10%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+8%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+5%5

EPS growth, FY27E+19%8

EPS growth, FY28E+16%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 69%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 16%/yr vs revenue 10%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 64% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Revenue grew 69%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 10%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%5

3-month return-13%3

YTD return-37%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high62%2

1-year return-28%2

3-year return-28%1

5-year return-28%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-28% over three years and -28% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 28% over the past year, now 38% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-13%) and so far this year (-37%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Exzeo Group, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community