First to market ≠ winner of the market.
By Vlad from Bastion on
Topics: scrolls.
We instinctively pay a premium for pioneers, the ones who got there first and planted the flag. History often says the opposite.
$GOOGL runs 90%+ of search today. In the late 1990s it wasn't even in the top five.
Don't buy "the first" just because it's first. An early lead is a weak signal, and the pioneer premium usually evaporates.
Pay for proven economics over the narrative. The marks of a real winner are a steadily high or rising ROIC and a market share that is already consolidating. That shows up in the numbers, not in press releases.