Top 3 Materials stocks by YTD return in 2026

LyondellBasell +76%
CF Industries +65%
Dow Inc +63%

All three share the same driver: the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. ~20% of global oil, ~30% of LNG, and ~1/3 of global fertilizer exports pass through the strait. The blockade created a supply shock across the entire chain from petrochemicals to fertilizers.

LyondellBasell $LYB - World's largest polyethylene producer. The blockade cut global polyethylene supply by an estimated 5-10%.

CF Industries $CF - World's largest ammonia producer. ~80% of global ammonia goes into nitrogen fertilizers (urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN).

Dow $DOW - Similar story to LYB but more diversified (polyethylene, silicones, industrial coatings).

The common pattern: all three are US-based producers on cheap shale gas, benefiting from rising global prices while their own costs stay flat. The market is betting on US cost advantage + Middle East disruption = margin expansion. The question is how long it lasts once the conflict ends.