These 39 companies earn money in ways AI could undercut: software priced per user, paid data and research, advice, middleman fees, and customers who never shop around. Over the past year their shares fell 11.7% on average, while the rest of the S&P 500 rose 15.2%. Analysts have barely changed their forecasts for next year's profit since 27 Jun (-0.4%). So far the fear is in the price, not in the profits.
Investment BastionSource: investmentbastion.com
Median stock of each group. Forward P/E is the share price divided by the profit per share analysts expect.
| Ticker | Company | The AI fear | Strength | 1Y return | Profit forecast since 27 Jun | Forward P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software | -23.3% | |||||
| INTU | Intuit | Charges about $162 for a TurboTax return. AI can do one for about 12 cents. | Strong | -52.6% | -19.5% | 13.1x |
| TYL | Tyler Technologies | Sells software to local governments. Agencies may build their own tools with AI. | Weak | -34.6% | -1.5% | 23.3x |
| ADBE | Adobe | Sells expensive tools for designers. AI makes images and video for pennies. | Strong | -28.2% | +0.5% | 9.0x |
| ROP | Roper Technologies | Owns dozens of small programs for niche industries. AI makes it easy to build such a program in-house. | Medium | -28.1% | -0.7% | 15.3x |
| NOW | ServiceNow | Sells software that handles requests inside companies. AI agents handle the requests themselves, so fewer people need it. | Strong | -20.8% | 0.0% | 30.6x |
| WDAY | Workday | Charges for every employee in its HR software. AI cuts headcount, so the bill shrinks. | Strong | -20.0% | +0.9% | 15.4x |
| CRM | Salesforce | Charges for every employee who uses it. AI does more of the work, so clients need fewer users and pay less. | Strong | -4.8% | +0.5% | 15.5x |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Runs payroll for companies. An AI agent could do it in-house. | Weak | -3.6% | +0.2% | 22.0x |
| Data & Ratings | -10.6% | |||||
| EFX | Equifax | Sells credit files and data. Investors fear AI makes paid data worth less. | Weak | -36.2% | -2.0% | 15.9x |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Sells insurers the data to price risk. AI lets insurers price it themselves. | Strong | -26.6% | -0.6% | 21.7x |
| IT | Gartner | Sells research and advice on what technology to buy. AI answers the same questions for free. | Medium | -20.2% | +2.1% | 12.7x |
| SPGI | S&P Global | Sells credit ratings, data and research. AI collects the data and writes the research itself. | Medium | -15.7% | -11.2% | 22.3x |
| MCO | Moody's | Earns on credit ratings and research. AI makes that research cheaper. | Medium | -3.5% | +0.9% | 25.9x |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | Sells market and mortgage data. Investors fear AI makes paid data worth less. | Weak | -0.2% | +0.8% | 19.3x |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Sells analysts a data terminal. AI finds and combines the same data on its own. | Medium | +2.4% | -2.2% | 14.8x |
| MSCI | MSCI | Sells indexes and data to funds. AI collects and processes data more cheaply. | Weak | +4.4% | -0.1% | 26.6x |
| IT Services | -9.9% | |||||
| IBM | International Business Machines | Earns on keeping old bank systems running. AI rewrites their code in a modern language. | Medium | -16.7% | -3.2% | 17.4x |
| ACN | Accenture | Bills clients for the hours of programmers and consultants. AI writes the code, so fewer hours get billed. | Strong | -12.0% | -1.9% | 14.1x |
| CTSH | Cognizant Technology Solutions | Rents out programmers. AI writes code, and clients ask for discounts. | Strong | -8.5% | -1.6% | 9.9x |
| Insurance Brokers | -20.8% | |||||
| BRO | Brown & Brown | Finds clients insurance for a commission. Now people compare policies inside ChatGPT, no broker needed. | Weak | -34.0% | -1.7% | 14.1x |
| AON | Aon | Finds clients insurance for a commission. Now people compare policies inside ChatGPT, no broker needed. | Medium | -23.5% | -4.4% | 14.2x |
| AJG | Arthur J. Gallagher | Finds clients insurance for a commission. Now people compare policies inside ChatGPT, no broker needed. | Medium | -22.4% | -0.4% | 16.5x |
| MRSH | Marsh & McLennan | Finds clients insurance for a commission. Now people compare policies inside ChatGPT, no broker needed. | Medium | -14.2% | +0.5% | 16.3x |
| WTW | Willis Towers Watson | Finds clients insurance for a commission. Now people compare policies inside ChatGPT, no broker needed. | Medium | -11.6% | +2.9% | 14.3x |
| Wealth Management | +3.1% | |||||
| RJF | Raymond James Financial | Earns on financial advisers. AI plans taxes and investments instead of an adviser. | Medium | -0.5% | +5.5% | 11.5x |
| SCHW | Charles Schwab | Earns on client cash that sits idle at a low rate. An AI agent moves it to where it pays more. | Medium | +6.2% | +10.0% | 13.7x |
| Freight Brokers | +43.0% | |||||
| CHRW | C.H. Robinson Worldwide | Takes a fee for finding a truck for each load. AI finds the truck itself. | Medium | +14.4% | +3.1% | 19.7x |
| EXPD | Expeditors International of Washington | Takes a fee for arranging shipments. AI does it without a middleman. | Medium | +71.7% | +19.2% | 24.7x |
| Real Estate & Ad Agencies | -4.3% | |||||
| CBRE | CBRE Group | Takes big fees on property deals. AI does part of the broker's work. | Medium | -13.0% | +1.3% | 15.9x |
| OMC | Omnicom Group | An ad agency. AI makes the ads, and clients skip the agency. | Strong | +2.0% | -7.2% | 7.4x |
| Travel & Shopping Sites | +12.4% | |||||
| BKNG | Booking | People search hotels on its site. An AI agent books directly and skips the site. | Medium | -22.1% | -2.2% | 14.3x |
| EBAY | eBay | People come to find a specific item. An AI agent finds it on any site. | Medium | +27.6% | -0.4% | 18.1x |
| EXPE | Expedia Group | People search hotels and flights on its site. An AI agent books directly and skips the site. | Strong | +30.9% | +5.1% | 11.9x |
| Cable & Internet | -43.9% | |||||
| CHTR | Charter Communications | People stay on old internet plans because shopping around is a hassle. An AI agent finds a cheaper plan and switches. | Weak | -60.2% | +28.5% | 1.8x |
| CMCSA | Comcast | People stay on old internet plans because shopping around is a hassle. An AI agent finds a cheaper plan and switches. | Weak | -23.4% | -2.7% | 6.3x |
| Consumer Brands | -17.0% | |||||
| CLX | Clorox | People buy the famous brand out of habit. An AI agent buys the same thing cheaper under the store's label. | Weak | -27.8% | -6.8% | 14.3x |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz | People buy the famous brand out of habit. An AI agent buys the same thing cheaper under the store's label. | Weak | -8.5% | -1.1% | 11.3x |
| Payments | -36.2% | |||||
| FISV | Fiserv | Processes online payments. Purchases made by AI agents may go to newer processors like Stripe and Adyen. | Weak | -62.8% | -10.1% | 6.3x |
| GPN | Global Payments | Processes online payments. Purchases made by AI agents may go to newer processors like Stripe and Adyen. | Weak | -0.2% | -1.1% | 5.8x |
Source: Investment Bastion. Price return 10 Oct 2025 to 10 Oct 2026; group rows show the equal-weighted return of the group.
The list holds 39 S&P 500 companies that banks or the market have marked as at risk from AI. The evidence comes from bank research (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Bernstein, BofA and others) and from the sell-offs that followed AI launches in 2026: Anthropic's Claude tools for office work in February, an insurance-shopping app inside ChatGPT, an AI tax planner for financial advisers, and Meta's Muse shopping agent in September.
Strength shows how solid the case is. Strong: a bank downgraded the stock because of AI, and the stock fell on AI news. Medium: one of the two. Weak: a bank named the risk, or the stock fell together with its whole industry.
The chart averages the weekly price change of each group, with every stock counting the same, and chains the weeks into one 52-week line. AI Stocks are the 44 members of our S&P 500 AI Stock Index; the rest of the S&P 500 is every other member. Dividends are not included.
The profit forecast compares analysts' forecast of next year's net profit today with their forecast on 27 Jun 2026, for the same fiscal year. The page updates on its own as new prices and forecasts arrive.
Being on this list is not a call to sell. Several of these companies still have Buy ratings from the same banks that named the risk, and a stock that has already fallen may price in more damage than AI ends up doing.