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Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd. (1618) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd.

1618Market cap $7.17BPrice $0.2

Country🇨🇳China

SectorIndustrials

IndustryConstruction & Engineering

Builds massive industrial and infrastructure projects across China, from steel plants to metro lines. It's the world's largest metallurgical engineering contractor, turning raw ore into entire cities' worth of construction.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-48%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-10%1

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+4%4

Rev CAGR (3y)+1%2

Rev CAGR (5y)+2%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+6155%10

EPS Growth Y+2+26%8

EPS Growth Y+3+7%6

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin3%2

Net Income Margin0%2

Free Cash Flow Margin2%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA0.86

Efficiency

ROE3%2

ROA0%2

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+WEAK22

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)710

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)610

P/BV0.310

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd410

EV/EBIT Fwd510

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield17.0%10

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-3%6

3 month return-6%5

YTD return-29%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh41%1

1 year return-53%1

Long term

3 year return-11%2

5 year return-35%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.86

Volatility41%4

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin2%3

Free Cash Flow Yield17.0%10

Quality

ROCE5%3

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA0.86

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

1618Metallurgical Corporation of China

Revenue FY25$62.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK17 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-10%1

Revenue, next 1Y+4%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+1%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+6155%10

EPS growth, FY27E+26%8

EPS growth, FY28E+7%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 26%/yr vs revenue 1%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 1%/yr from here.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 83% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 10%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Revenue is set to grow 1%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

1618Metallurgical Corporation of China

Total return Current−36.9%

Price return Current−58.0%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK12 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-3%6

3-month return-6%5

YTD return-29%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high41%1

1-year return-53%1

3-year return-11%2

5-year return-35%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-3%) and over three months (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-11% over three years and -35% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 53% over the past year, now 59% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-29%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

1618Metallurgical Corporation of China

Revenue FY25$62.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK17 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-10%1

Revenue, next 1Y+4%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+1%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+6155%10

EPS growth, FY27E+26%8

EPS growth, FY28E+7%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 26%/yr vs revenue 1%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 1%/yr from here.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 83% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 10%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Revenue is set to grow 1%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

1618Metallurgical Corporation of China

Total return Current−36.9%

Price return Current−58.0%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK12 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-3%6

3-month return-6%5

YTD return-29%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high41%1

1-year return-53%1

3-year return-11%2

5-year return-35%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-3%) and over three months (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-11% over three years and -35% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 53% over the past year, now 59% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-29%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community