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China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. (600999) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated today

China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd.

600999Market cap $21BPrice $2.5

Country🇨🇳China

SectorFinancials

IndustryCapital Markets

Runs one of China's largest brokerages, offering brokerage, investment banking, and asset management services. Backed by state-owned China Merchants Group, it rode China's capital markets boom while surviving brutal fee wars that squeezed smaller rivals out.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+7%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+9%6

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+76%10

Rev CAGR (3y)+11%7

Rev CAGR (5y)+6%6

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+94%10

EPS Growth Y+2-23%2

EPS Growth Y+3+4%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin0%6

Net Income Margin49%10

Free Cash Flow Margin98%10

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

Efficiency

ROE12%6

ROA2%4

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+VERY STRONG95

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)710

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)99

P/BV1.09

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd010

EV/EBIT Fwd010

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%10

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-5%5

3 month return-20%2

YTD return+5%6

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh76%4

1 year return+2%5

Long term

3 year return+32%5

5 year return+5%4

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.48

Volatility27%8

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin98%10

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%10

Quality

ROCE8%4

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

600999China Merchants Securities Co.

Revenue FY25$3.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE67 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+9%6

Revenue, next 1Y+76%10

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+11%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+6%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+94%10

EPS growth, FY27E-23%2

EPS growth, FY28E+4%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 67% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 11%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

Revenue grew 9%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 11%/yr.

WATCH

Over five years revenue is set to grow 6%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

Earnings are set to grow slower than sales (EPS about 4%/yr vs revenue 11%/yr), so margins are under pressure. One year dips: EPS falls 23% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A top-tier grower. The one thing to watch: earnings are set to grow slower than sales.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

600999China Merchants Securities Co.

Total return Current34.6%

Price return Current8.3%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK25 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-5%5

3-month return-20%2

YTD return+5%6

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high76%4

1-year return+2%5

3-year return+32%5

5-year return+5%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+32% over three years and +5% over five), roughly average for the market.

It's up 2% over the past year, but 24% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-5%) and so far this year (+5%).

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over three months (-20%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the stock is underperforming over three months.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on CMS Securities. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

600999China Merchants Securities Co.

Revenue FY25$3.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE67 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+9%6

Revenue, next 1Y+76%10

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+11%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+6%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+94%10

EPS growth, FY27E-23%2

EPS growth, FY28E+4%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 67% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 11%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

Revenue grew 9%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 11%/yr.

WATCH

Over five years revenue is set to grow 6%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

Earnings are set to grow slower than sales (EPS about 4%/yr vs revenue 11%/yr), so margins are under pressure. One year dips: EPS falls 23% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A top-tier grower. The one thing to watch: earnings are set to grow slower than sales.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

600999China Merchants Securities Co.

Total return Current34.6%

Price return Current8.3%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK25 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-5%5

3-month return-20%2

YTD return+5%6

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high76%4

1-year return+2%5

3-year return+32%5

5-year return+5%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+32% over three years and +5% over five), roughly average for the market.

It's up 2% over the past year, but 24% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-5%) and so far this year (+5%).

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over three months (-20%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on CMS Securities. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community