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American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

American Airlines Group Inc.

AALMarket cap $8.51BPrice $12.8

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAirlines

Flies millions of passengers worldwide through its massive hub-and-spoke network, operating one of the largest fleets on the planet. Despite being a travel giant, it's carried more debt than almost any airline in history.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+8%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+4%4

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+16%7

Rev CAGR (3y)+8%6

Rev CAGR (5y)+2%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1Loss1

EPS Growth Y+20%5

EPS Growth Y+3+52%9

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin2%2

Net Income Margin-1%2

Free Cash Flow Margin0%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA3.33

Efficiency

ROEna–

ROA-1%2

Earnings Stability66

GEAR+VERY WEAK10

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)214

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)410

P/BVna–

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd88

EV/EBIT Fwd322

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield3.4%5

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-0%8

3 month return-22%1

YTD return-16%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh68%3

1 year return+9%6

Long term

3 year return+1%3

5 year return-36%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.52

Volatility47%3

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin0%3

Free Cash Flow Yield3.4%5

Quality

ROCE3%2

Earnings Stability66

Net Debt/EBITDA3.33

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

AALAmerican Airlines Group

Revenue FY25$54.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE41 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+4%4

Revenue, next 1Y+16%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26ELoss1

EPS growth, FY27E0%5

EPS growth, FY28E+52%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 4%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 8%/yr from here.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 41% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

WEAKNESSES

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's speeding up. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK20 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-0%8

3-month return-22%1

YTD return-16%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high68%3

1-year return+9%6

3-year return+1%3

5-year return-36%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+0%).

WATCH

It's up 9% over the past year, but 32% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+0.7% over three years and -36% over five), behind 70% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-22%) and so far this year (-16%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on American Airlines Group Inc.. Get the full investment case.

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$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

AALAmerican Airlines Group

Revenue FY25$54.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE41 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+4%4

Revenue, next 1Y+16%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26ELoss1

EPS growth, FY27E0%5

EPS growth, FY28E+52%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 4%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 8%/yr from here.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 41% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

WEAKNESSES

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's speeding up. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK20 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-0%8

3-month return-22%1

YTD return-16%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high68%3

1-year return+9%6

3-year return+1%3

5-year return-36%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+0%).

WATCH

It's up 9% over the past year, but 32% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+0.7% over three years and -36% over five), behind 70% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-22%) and so far this year (-16%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on American Airlines Group Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community