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Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Alaska Air Group, Inc.

ALKMarket cap $4.42BPrice $39.6

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAirlines

Flies passengers across the West Coast and beyond, now supersized after swallowing Hawaiian Airlines in 2024. That merger made it America's fifth-largest carrier, giving it real muscle to compete with the big four legacy giants.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-16%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+14%8

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+11%6

Rev CAGR (3y)+8%6

Rev CAGR (5y)+7%6

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1Loss1

EPS Growth Y+20%5

EPS Growth Y+3+71%10

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin-0%1

Net Income Margin-1%2

Free Cash Flow Margin-2%2

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA2.73

Efficiency

ROE-5%2

ROA-1%2

Earnings Stability22

GEAR+VERY WEAK10

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)4301

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)410

P/BV1.29

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd106

EV/EBIT Fwdna–

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield-7.9%1

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-3%6

3 month return-17%2

YTD return-21%2

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh65%3

1 year return-19%3

Long term

3 year return+13%3

5 year return-34%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.13

Volatility52%3

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin-2%2

Free Cash Flow Yield-7.9%1

Quality

ROCE-0%2

Earnings Stability22

Net Debt/EBITDA2.73

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ALKAlaska Air Group

Revenue FY25$14.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE57 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+14%8

Revenue, next 1Y+11%6

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26ELoss1

EPS growth, FY27E0%5

EPS growth, FY28E+71%10

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 14%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 70% of companies worldwide.8/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 57% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Revenue grew 14%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 8%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

WEAKNESSES

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Top-Line Rocket

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK13 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-3%6

3-month return-17%2

YTD return-21%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high65%3

1-year return-19%3

3-year return+13%3

5-year return-34%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-3%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+13% over three years and -34% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 19% over the past year, now 35% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-17%) and so far this year (-21%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Alaska Air Group, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ALKAlaska Air Group

Revenue FY25$14.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE57 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+14%8

Revenue, next 1Y+11%6

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26ELoss1

EPS growth, FY27E0%5

EPS growth, FY28E+71%10

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 14%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 70% of companies worldwide.8/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 57% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Revenue grew 14%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 8%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

WEAKNESSES

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Top-Line Rocket

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK13 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-3%6

3-month return-17%2

YTD return-21%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high65%3

1-year return-19%3

3-year return+13%3

5-year return-34%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-3%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+13% over three years and -34% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 19% over the past year, now 35% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-17%) and so far this year (-21%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Alaska Air Group, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community