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Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Genius Sports Limited

GENIMarket cap $1.66BPrice $6.2

Country🇬🇧United Kingdom

SectorConsumer

IndustryHotels & Leisure

Collects and distributes live sports data and streaming feeds that power betting odds for sportsbooks worldwide. Officially partnered with the NFL, NBA, and NCAA, it turns real-time stats into the backbone of legal sports gambling.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-48%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+25%9

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+52%10

Rev CAGR (3y)+34%10

Rev CAGR (5y)+15%9

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+10%5

EPS Growth Y+2+115%10

EPS Growth Y+3+0%4

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin-14%1

Net Income Margin-23%1

Free Cash Flow Margin-7%2

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

Efficiency

ROE-26%1

ROA-12%1

Earnings Stability22

GEAR+WEAK29

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)99

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)79

P/BV2.46

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd88

EV/EBIT Fwdna–

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield-3.4%2

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-17%1

3 month return-4%5

YTD return-44%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh50%1

1 year return-46%1

Long term

3 year return+19%4

5 year return-65%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.32

Volatility74%1

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin-7%2

Free Cash Flow Yield-3.4%2

Quality

ROCE-9%1

Earnings Stability22

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GENIGenius Sports

Revenue FY25$669M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY STRONG94 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+25%9

Revenue, next 1Y+52%10

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+34%10

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+15%9

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E0%5

EPS growth, FY27E+115%10

EPS growth, FY28E+0%4

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 94% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 25%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

Revenue is set to grow 34%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.10/10

Revenue grew 25%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 34%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 15%/yr over five years.9/10

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Top-Line Rocket

A top-tier grower that's speeding up. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

GENIGenius Sports

Total return Current−64.6%

Price return Current−64.6%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK7 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-17%1

3-month return-4%5

YTD return-44%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high50%1

1-year return-46%1

3-year return+19%4

5-year return-65%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+19% over three years and -65% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 46% over the past year, now 50% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-17%) and so far this year (-44%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Genius Sports Limited. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GENIGenius Sports

Revenue FY25$669M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY STRONG94 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+25%9

Revenue, next 1Y+52%10

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+34%10

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+15%9

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E0%5

EPS growth, FY27E+115%10

EPS growth, FY28E+0%4

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 94% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 25%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

Revenue is set to grow 34%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.10/10

Revenue grew 25%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 34%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 15%/yr over five years.9/10

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Top-Line Rocket

A top-tier grower that's speeding up. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

GENIGenius Sports

Total return Current−64.6%

Price return Current−64.6%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK7 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-17%1

3-month return-4%5

YTD return-44%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high50%1

1-year return-46%1

3-year return+19%4

5-year return-65%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+19% over three years and -65% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 46% over the past year, now 50% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-17%) and so far this year (-44%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Genius Sports Limited. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community