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Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Graphic Packaging Holding Company

GPKMarket cap $2.52BPrice $8.5

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorMaterials

IndustryPackaging

Turns paperboard into food and beverage packaging for brands you use daily, from cereal boxes to beer cartons. One of the world's largest makers of fiber-based packaging, replacing plastic one carton at a time.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-49%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-3%2

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-0%2

Rev CAGR (3y)+1%2

Rev CAGR (5y)+1%1

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-54%1

EPS Growth Y+2+54%9

EPS Growth Y+3+16%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin7%3

Net Income Margin2%3

Free Cash Flow Margin2%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA4.32

Efficiency

ROE6%3

ROA2%4

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+VERY WEAK10

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)109

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)79

P/BV0.810

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd88

EV/EBIT Fwd165

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield7.5%8

Dividend Yield5.2%9

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-13%2

3 month return-15%2

YTD return-42%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh47%1

1 year return-53%1

Long term

3 year return-57%1

5 year return-50%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.95

Volatility46%3

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin2%3

Free Cash Flow Yield7.5%8

Quality

ROCE6%4

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA4.32

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GPKGraphic Packaging Holding

Revenue FY25$8.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-3%2

Revenue, next 1Y-0%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+1%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+1%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-54%1

EPS growth, FY27E+54%9

EPS growth, FY28E+16%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 1%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 16%/yr vs revenue 1%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 54% next year.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 92% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 3%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Revenue is set to grow 1%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 0.9%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK2 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-13%2

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-42%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high47%1

1-year return-53%1

3-year return-57%1

5-year return-50%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-57% over three years and -50% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 53% over the past year, now 53% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-13%), over three months (-15%) and so far this year (-42%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Graphic Packaging Holding Company. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GPKGraphic Packaging Holding

Revenue FY25$8.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-3%2

Revenue, next 1Y-0%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+1%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+1%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-54%1

EPS growth, FY27E+54%9

EPS growth, FY28E+16%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 1%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 16%/yr vs revenue 1%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 54% next year.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 92% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 3%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Revenue is set to grow 1%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 0.9%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK2 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-13%2

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-42%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high47%1

1-year return-53%1

3-year return-57%1

5-year return-50%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-57% over three years and -50% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 53% over the past year, now 53% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-13%), over three months (-15%) and so far this year (-42%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Graphic Packaging Holding Company. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community