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MIXUE Group (2097) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

MIXUE Group

2097Market cap $8.31BPrice $22.0

Country🇨🇳China

SectorConsumer

IndustryHotels & Leisure

Sells ultra-cheap ice cream, drinks, and tea through the world's largest food and beverage chain by store count, with over 45,000 locations. Most outlets sit in China's smaller cities, powering a franchise empire built on rock-bottom prices and massive volume.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-60%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+35%10

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+5%4

Rev CAGR (3y)+5%4

Rev CAGR (5y)+9%7

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-11%3

EPS Growth Y+2+10%6

EPS Growth Y+3+12%7

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin20%7

Net Income Margin16%7

Free Cash Flow Margin12%6

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-2.710

Efficiency

ROE23%8

ROA18%10

Earnings Stability77

GEAR+VERY STRONG87

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)108

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)98

P/BV2.17

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd510

EV/EBIT Fwd510

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield7.4%8

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-15%1

3 month return-17%2

YTD return-57%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh38%1

1 year return-54%1

Long term

3 year return-40%1

5 year return-40%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.76

Volatility46%3

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin12%6

Free Cash Flow Yield7.4%8

Quality

ROCE28%9

Earnings Stability77

Net Debt/EBITDA-2.710

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

2097MIXUE

Revenue FY25$4.8B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE51 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+35%10

Revenue, next 1Y+5%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+5%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+9%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-11%3

EPS growth, FY27E+10%6

EPS growth, FY28E+12%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 35%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over five years.7/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 51% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 5%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

Revenue grew 35%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 5%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 10%/yr vs revenue 5%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 11% next year.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

2097MIXUE

Total return Current−58.3%

Price return Current−58.3%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK2 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-15%1

3-month return-17%2

YTD return-57%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high38%1

1-year return-54%1

3-year return-40%1

5-year return-40%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-40% over three years and -40% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 54% over the past year, now 62% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-15%), over three months (-17%) and so far this year (-57%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on MIXUE. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

2097MIXUE

Revenue FY25$4.8B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE51 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+35%10

Revenue, next 1Y+5%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+5%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+9%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-11%3

EPS growth, FY27E+10%6

EPS growth, FY28E+12%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 35%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over five years.7/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 51% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 5%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

Revenue grew 35%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 5%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 10%/yr vs revenue 5%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 11% next year.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

2097MIXUE

Total return Current−58.3%

Price return Current−58.3%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK2 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-15%1

3-month return-17%2

YTD return-57%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high38%1

1-year return-54%1

3-year return-40%1

5-year return-40%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-40% over three years and -40% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 54% over the past year, now 62% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-15%), over three months (-17%) and so far this year (-57%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on MIXUE. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community