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Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Chagee Holdings Limited

CHAMarket cap $2.13BPrice $11.2

Country🇨🇳China

SectorConsumer

IndustryHotels & Leisure

Sells premium tea-based drinks across China and Southeast Asia, blending Yunnan tea culture with a Starbucks-style retail model. It's grown into one of China's fastest-expanding chains, chasing Mixue and Heytea in the trillion-cup tea wars.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-26%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+196%10

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+15%7

Rev CAGR (3y)+9%6

Rev CAGR (5y)+10%8

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+46%9

EPS Growth Y+2+10%7

EPS Growth Y+3+5%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin11%5

Net Income Margin10%6

Free Cash Flow Margin6%4

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-3.110

Efficiency

ROE15%6

ROA12%9

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+STRONG85

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)89

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)710

P/BV1.77

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd410

EV/EBIT Fwd410

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield5.7%7

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-11%2

3 month return-2%6

YTD return-4%4

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh67%3

1 year return-29%2

Long term

3 year return-63%1

5 year return-63%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.95

Volatility52%3

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin6%4

Free Cash Flow Yield5.7%7

Quality

ROCE16%8

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA-3.110

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

CHAChagee Holdings

Revenue FY25$1.8B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG70 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+196%10

Revenue, next 1Y+15%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+9%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+10%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+46%9

EPS growth, FY27E+10%7

EPS growth, FY28E+5%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 70% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 196%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

Revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 10%/yr vs revenue 9%/yr).

WATCH

Revenue grew 196%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 9%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

CHAChagee Holdings

Total return Current−4.0%

Price return Current−4.0%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK10 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-11%2

3-month return-2%6

YTD return-4%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high67%3

1-year return-29%2

3-year return-63%1

5-year return-63%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-2%) and so far this year (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-63% over three years and -63% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 29% over the past year, now 33% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-11%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Chagee. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

CHAChagee Holdings

Revenue FY25$1.8B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG70 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+196%10

Revenue, next 1Y+15%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+9%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+10%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+46%9

EPS growth, FY27E+10%7

EPS growth, FY28E+5%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 70% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 196%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

Revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 10%/yr vs revenue 9%/yr).

WATCH

Revenue grew 196%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 9%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

CHAChagee Holdings

Total return Current−4.0%

Price return Current−4.0%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK10 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-11%2

3-month return-2%6

YTD return-4%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high67%3

1-year return-29%2

3-year return-63%1

5-year return-63%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-2%) and so far this year (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-63% over three years and -63% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 29% over the past year, now 33% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-11%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Chagee. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community