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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (601888) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated today

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited

601888Market cap $15BPrice $7.6

Country🇨🇳China

SectorConsumer

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Runs duty-free shops across Chinese airports, cruise ports, and downtown stores, controlling roughly 80% of the mainland's duty-free market. Every outbound traveler practically walks past their perfume counters before boarding.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-23%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-1%3

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+5%4

Rev CAGR (3y)+7%5

Rev CAGR (5y)+11%8

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+34%9

EPS Growth Y+2+13%7

EPS Growth Y+3+12%7

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin9%4

Net Income Margin8%5

Free Cash Flow Margin9%5

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-4.210

Efficiency

ROE7%3

ROA5%6

Earnings Stability22

GEAR+AVERAGE45

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)214

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)183

P/BV1.87

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd115

EV/EBIT Fwd137

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield4.4%6

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-6%4

3 month return+0%7

YTD return-46%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh51%1

1 year return-26%2

Long term

3 year return-47%1

5 year return-80%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.39

Volatility39%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin9%5

Free Cash Flow Yield4.4%6

Quality

ROCE7%4

Earnings Stability22

Net Debt/EBITDA-4.210

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

601888China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation

Revenue FY25$7.7B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE54 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-1%3

Revenue, next 1Y+5%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+7%5

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+11%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+34%9

EPS growth, FY27E+13%7

EPS growth, FY28E+12%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 7%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 11%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 13%/yr vs revenue 7%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 54% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 7%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 0.9%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

601888China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation

Total return Current167%

Price return Current142%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK10 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%4

3-month return+0%7

YTD return-46%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high51%1

1-year return-26%2

3-year return-47%1

5-year return-80%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+0%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-47% over three years and -80% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 26% over the past year, now 49% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-46%).

BOTTOM LINE

Weak Tape

Returns across short and long horizons rank poorly versus the market. Momentum offers no support here; the case has to come from other factors. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on CTG Duty Free. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

601888China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation

Revenue FY25$7.7B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE54 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-1%3

Revenue, next 1Y+5%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+7%5

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+11%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+34%9

EPS growth, FY27E+13%7

EPS growth, FY28E+12%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 7%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 11%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 13%/yr vs revenue 7%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 54% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 7%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 0.9%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

601888China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation

Total return Current167%

Price return Current142%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK10 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%4

3-month return+0%7

YTD return-46%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high51%1

1-year return-26%2

3-year return-47%1

5-year return-80%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+0%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-47% over three years and -80% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 26% over the past year, now 49% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-46%).

BOTTOM LINE

Weak Tape

Returns across short and long horizons rank poorly versus the market. Momentum offers no support here; the case has to come from other factors. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on CTG Duty Free. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community