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Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.

ABRMarket cap $0.58BPrice $3.1

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorFinancials

IndustryMortgage REITs

Originates and manages loans for multifamily and commercial real estate, then collects the interest as profit. It's structured as a REIT, meaning it must pay out 90% of taxable income as dividends, making it a favorite for yield-hungry investors.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-71%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-6%1

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-61%1

Rev CAGR (3y)-24%1

Rev CAGR (5y)-14%1

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-30%2

EPS Growth Y+2+51%9

EPS Growth Y+3-11%3

Quality

Margins

EBIT Marginna–

Net Income Margin12%6

Free Cash Flow Margin63%10

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

Efficiency

ROE1%2

ROA0%2

Earnings Stability22

GEAR+VERY WEAK11

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)710

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)610

P/BV0.310

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd010

EV/EBIT Fwd010

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%3

Dividend Yield22.0%10

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-37%1

3 month return-36%1

YTD return-56%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh29%1

1 year return-69%1

Long term

3 year return-68%1

5 year return-71%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.86

Volatility45%4

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin63%10

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%3

Quality

ROCE1%2

Earnings Stability22

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ABRArbor Realty Trust

Revenue FY25$545M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK3 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-6%1

Revenue, next 1Y-61%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-24%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-14%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-30%2

EPS growth, FY27E+51%9

EPS growth, FY28E-11%3

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 97% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 6%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Revenue is set to shrink 24%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue fell 6%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to shrink 24%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to shrink 14%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Earnings are set to fall along with revenue (EPS about -11%/yr vs revenue -24%/yr).

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK1 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-37%1

3-month return-36%1

YTD return-56%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high29%1

1-year return-69%1

3-year return-68%1

5-year return-71%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-68% over three years and -71% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 69% over the past year, now 71% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-37%), over three months (-36%) and so far this year (-56%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Arbor Realty. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ABRArbor Realty Trust

Revenue FY25$545M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK3 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-6%1

Revenue, next 1Y-61%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-24%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-14%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-30%2

EPS growth, FY27E+51%9

EPS growth, FY28E-11%3

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 97% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 6%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Revenue is set to shrink 24%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue fell 6%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to shrink 24%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to shrink 14%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Earnings are set to fall along with revenue (EPS about -11%/yr vs revenue -24%/yr).

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK1 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-37%1

3-month return-36%1

YTD return-56%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high29%1

1-year return-69%1

3-year return-68%1

5-year return-71%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-68% over three years and -71% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 69% over the past year, now 71% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-37%), over three months (-36%) and so far this year (-56%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Arbor Realty. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community