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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

NLYMarket cap $14BPrice $18.4

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorFinancials

IndustryMortgage REITs

Manages a massive portfolio of mortgage-backed securities, borrowing cheap and investing in higher-yielding home loans to pocket the spread. It's one of the largest mortgage REITs in America, paying out most profits as dividends.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-6%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+6%5

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-16%1

Rev CAGR (3y)+5%4

Rev CAGR (5y)+7%6

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+5%5

EPS Growth Y+2+6%5

EPS Growth Y+3-6%3

Quality

Margins

EBIT Marginna–

Net Income Margin91%10

Free Cash Flow Margin27%9

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

Efficiency

ROE21%8

ROA2%4

Earnings Stability33

GEAR+STRONG68

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

100

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)610

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)610

P/BV0.910

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd010

EV/EBIT Fwd010

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%10

Dividend Yield16.3%10

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-16%1

3 month return-16%2

YTD return-9%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh80%5

1 year return+2%5

Long term

3 year return+56%6

5 year return+8%4

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.67

Volatility20%10

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin27%9

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%10

Quality

ROCE6%4

Earnings Stability33

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

NLYAnnaly Capital Management

Revenue FY25$2.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK32 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+6%5

Revenue, next 1Y-16%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+5%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+5%5

EPS growth, FY27E+6%5

EPS growth, FY28E-6%3

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue is set to grow 5%/yr over the next 3 years, a little behind the market.4/10

Revenue grew 6%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 5%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 5%/yr vs revenue 5%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 6% in year 3.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 68% of companies worldwide.

BOTTOM LINE

Modest Grower

Growth is a weak point here. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK21 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-16%1

3-month return-16%2

YTD return-9%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high80%5

1-year return+2%5

3-year return+56%6

5-year return+8%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+56% over three years and +8.2% over five), roughly average for the market.

It's up 2% over the past year, but 20% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-16%), over three months (-16%) and so far this year (-9%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the stock is underperforming over the past month, over three months and so far this year.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Annaly Capital. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

NLYAnnaly Capital Management

Revenue FY25$2.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK32 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+6%5

Revenue, next 1Y-16%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+5%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+5%5

EPS growth, FY27E+6%5

EPS growth, FY28E-6%3

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue is set to grow 5%/yr over the next 3 years, a little behind the market.4/10

Revenue grew 6%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 5%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 5%/yr vs revenue 5%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 6% in year 3.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 68% of companies worldwide.

BOTTOM LINE

Modest Grower

Growth is a weak point here. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK21 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-16%1

3-month return-16%2

YTD return-9%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high80%5

1-year return+2%5

3-year return+56%6

5-year return+8%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+56% over three years and +8.2% over five), roughly average for the market.

It's up 2% over the past year, but 20% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-16%), over three months (-16%) and so far this year (-9%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Annaly Capital. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community