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Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Starwood Property Trust, Inc.

STWDMarket cap $4.69BPrice $12.7

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorFinancials

IndustryMortgage REITs

Originates and manages commercial real estate debt, making it the largest commercial mortgage REIT in the US. Lends billions across property types, from hotels to data centers, profiting on the spread between borrowing costs and interest income.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-28%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-4%2

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+13%7

Rev CAGR (3y)+11%7

Rev CAGR (5y)+9%7

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+33%9

EPS Growth Y+2+29%8

EPS Growth Y+3+5%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Marginna–

Net Income Margin38%10

Free Cash Flow Margin81%10

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

Efficiency

ROE3%2

ROA0%2

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+STRONG82

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)710

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)610

P/BV0.710

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd010

EV/EBIT Fwd010

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%5

Dividend Yield15.2%10

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-18%1

3 month return-20%2

YTD return-23%2

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh73%4

1 year return-24%2

Long term

3 year return-8%2

5 year return-16%3

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.58

Volatility18%10

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin81%10

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%5

Quality

ROCE0%2

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

STWDStarwood Property Trust

Revenue FY25$548M

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE63 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-4%2

Revenue, next 1Y+13%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+11%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+9%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+33%9

EPS growth, FY27E+29%8

EPS growth, FY28E+5%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue is set to grow 11%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 11%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 29%/yr vs revenue 11%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 63% of companies worldwide.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 4%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK7 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-18%1

3-month return-20%2

YTD return-23%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high73%4

1-year return-24%2

3-year return-8%2

5-year return-16%3

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-8.1% over three years and -16% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 24% over the past year, now 27% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-18%), over three months (-20%) and so far this year (-23%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Starwood Property. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

STWDStarwood Property Trust

Revenue FY25$548M

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE63 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-4%2

Revenue, next 1Y+13%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+11%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+9%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+33%9

EPS growth, FY27E+29%8

EPS growth, FY28E+5%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue is set to grow 11%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 11%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 29%/yr vs revenue 11%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 63% of companies worldwide.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 4%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK7 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-18%1

3-month return-20%2

YTD return-23%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high73%4

1-year return-24%2

3-year return-8%2

5-year return-16%3

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-8.1% over three years and -16% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 24% over the past year, now 27% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-18%), over three months (-20%) and so far this year (-23%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Starwood Property. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community