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Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

BXMTMarket cap $1.91BPrice $11.2

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorFinancials

IndustryMortgage REITs

Originates and manages senior commercial real estate loans backed by office buildings, hotels, and apartments across the US and Europe. Backed by Blackstone's real estate empire, it lends billions while pocketing the spread between borrowing and lending rates.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-34%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+2%3

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-28%1

Rev CAGR (3y)-13%1

Rev CAGR (5y)-8%1

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+60%9

EPS Growth Y+2+28%8

EPS Growth Y+3+21%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Marginna–

Net Income Margin4%3

Free Cash Flow Margin88%10

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

Efficiency

ROE0%2

ROA0%2

Earnings Stability22

GEAR+VERY WEAK13

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)118

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)79

P/BV0.610

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd08

EV/EBIT Fwd08

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yieldna1

Dividend Yield16.8%10

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-16%1

3 month return-32%1

YTD return-36%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh59%2

1 year return-32%2

Long term

3 year return-25%2

5 year return-39%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.67

Volatility25%8

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin88%10

Free Cash Flow Yieldna1

Quality

ROCE0%2

Earnings Stability22

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust

Revenue FY25$440M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK7 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+2%3

Revenue, next 1Y-28%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-13%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-8%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+60%9

EPS growth, FY27E+28%8

EPS growth, FY28E+21%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 28%/yr vs revenue -13%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 93% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 2%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

Revenue is set to shrink 13%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue grew 2%/yr over the last 3 years, but it is set to shrink 13%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to shrink 8%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: the 3-year revenue record is weak.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK3 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-16%1

3-month return-32%1

YTD return-36%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high59%2

1-year return-32%2

3-year return-25%2

5-year return-39%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-25% over three years and -39% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 32% over the past year, now 41% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-16%), over three months (-32%) and so far this year (-36%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Blackstone Mortgage. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust

Revenue FY25$440M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK7 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+2%3

Revenue, next 1Y-28%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-13%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-8%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+60%9

EPS growth, FY27E+28%8

EPS growth, FY28E+21%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 28%/yr vs revenue -13%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 93% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 2%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

Revenue is set to shrink 13%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue grew 2%/yr over the last 3 years, but it is set to shrink 13%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to shrink 8%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: the 3-year revenue record is weak.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK3 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-16%1

3-month return-32%1

YTD return-36%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high59%2

1-year return-32%2

3-year return-25%2

5-year return-39%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-25% over three years and -39% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 32% over the past year, now 41% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-16%), over three months (-32%) and so far this year (-36%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Blackstone Mortgage. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community