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Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Trip.com Group Limited

TCOMMarket cap $24BPrice $38.3

Country🇨🇳China

SectorConsumer

IndustryHotels & Leisure

Runs China's biggest online travel platform, booking flights, hotels, and trips across Asia and beyond. Built on the old Ctrip brand, it now rivals Booking and Expedia for global travel bookings, powered by China's massive outbound tourism boom.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-45%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+45%10

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+11%6

Rev CAGR (3y)+8%6

Rev CAGR (5y)+10%7

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-45%2

EPS Growth Y+2+9%6

EPS Growth Y+3+10%6

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin16%6

Net Income Margin37%9

Free Cash Flow Marginna–

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-4.510

Efficiency

ROE16%7

ROA9%8

Earnings Stability88

GEAR+STRONG74

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)109

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)89

P/BV1.09

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd410

EV/EBIT Fwd610

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yieldna–

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-7%4

3 month return-6%4

YTD return-47%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh48%1

1 year return-47%1

Long term

3 year return+13%3

5 year return+22%4

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.95

Volatility36%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Marginna–

Free Cash Flow Yieldna–

Quality

ROCE6%4

Earnings Stability88

Net Debt/EBITDA-4.510

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TCOMTrip.com Group

Revenue FY25$8.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE62 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+45%10

Revenue, next 1Y+11%6

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+10%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-45%2

EPS growth, FY27E+9%6

EPS growth, FY28E+10%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 45%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over five years.7/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 62% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Revenue grew 45%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 8%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 9%/yr vs revenue 8%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 45% next year.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

TCOMTrip.com Group

Total return Current−4.0%

Price return Current−4.3%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK11 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-7%4

3-month return-6%4

YTD return-47%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high48%1

1-year return-47%1

3-year return+13%3

5-year return+22%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-7%) and over three months (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+13% over three years and +22% over five), behind 60% of the market.

It's down 47% over the past year, now 52% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-47%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Trip.com. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TCOMTrip.com Group

Revenue FY25$8.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE62 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+45%10

Revenue, next 1Y+11%6

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+10%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-45%2

EPS growth, FY27E+9%6

EPS growth, FY28E+10%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 45%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over five years.7/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 62% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Revenue grew 45%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 8%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 9%/yr vs revenue 8%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 45% next year.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

TCOMTrip.com Group

Total return Current−4.0%

Price return Current−4.3%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK11 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-7%4

3-month return-6%4

YTD return-47%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high48%1

1-year return-47%1

3-year return+13%3

5-year return+22%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-7%) and over three months (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+13% over three years and +22% over five), behind 60% of the market.

It's down 47% over the past year, now 52% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-47%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Trip.com. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community