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JD Logistics, Inc. (2618) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

JD Logistics, Inc.

2618Market cap $8.41BPrice $1.3

Country🇨🇳China

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAir Freight & Logistics

Runs China's most advanced logistics network, delivering same-day and next-day for JD.com while also serving outside clients. Built on warehouses so automated that robots handle picking, sorting, and packing faster than most humans ever could.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-17%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+16%8

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+27%9

Rev CAGR (3y)+13%8

Rev CAGR (5y)+10%7

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+38%9

EPS Growth Y+2+14%7

EPS Growth Y+3+11%7

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin3%2

Net Income Margin3%3

Free Cash Flow Margin5%4

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA0.19

Efficiency

ROE13%6

ROA6%7

Earnings Stability88

GEAR+VERY STRONG94

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)610

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)510

P/BV1.09

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd210

EV/EBIT Fwd510

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield19.8%10

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-10%3

3 month return-21%2

YTD return-13%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh60%2

1 year return-21%2

Long term

3 year return+5%3

5 year return-68%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.48

Volatility40%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin5%4

Free Cash Flow Yield19.8%10

Quality

ROCE8%5

Earnings Stability88

Net Debt/EBITDA0.19

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

2618JD Logistics

Revenue FY25$31.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG79 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+16%8

Revenue, next 1Y+27%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+13%8

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+10%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+38%9

EPS growth, FY27E+14%7

EPS growth, FY28E+11%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 79% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 16%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 70% of companies worldwide.8/10

Revenue is set to grow 13%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 14%/yr vs revenue 13%/yr).

WATCH

Revenue grew 16%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 13%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

2618JD Logistics

Total return Current−62.2%

Price return Current−62.2%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK6 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-10%3

3-month return-21%2

YTD return-13%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high60%2

1-year return-21%2

3-year return+5%3

5-year return-68%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+5.1% over three years and -68% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 21% over the past year, now 40% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-10%), over three months (-21%) and so far this year (-13%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on JD Logistics, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

2618JD Logistics

Revenue FY25$31.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG79 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+16%8

Revenue, next 1Y+27%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+13%8

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+10%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+38%9

EPS growth, FY27E+14%7

EPS growth, FY28E+11%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 79% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 16%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 70% of companies worldwide.8/10

Revenue is set to grow 13%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 14%/yr vs revenue 13%/yr).

WATCH

Revenue grew 16%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 13%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

2618JD Logistics

Total return Current−62.2%

Price return Current−62.2%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK6 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-10%3

3-month return-21%2

YTD return-13%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high60%2

1-year return-21%2

3-year return+5%3

5-year return-68%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+5.1% over three years and -68% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 21% over the past year, now 40% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-10%), over three months (-21%) and so far this year (-13%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on JD Logistics, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community