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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

ZTOMarket cap $15BPrice $19.8

Country🇨🇳China

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAir Freight & Logistics

Delivers packages across China, moving over 30 billion parcels a year through a franchise network that makes it one of the world's largest express delivery operators. It profits by charging franchise partners for sorting and transport, not just shipping fees.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+6%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+11%7

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+23%8

Rev CAGR (3y)+12%7

Rev CAGR (5y)+10%7

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+32%9

EPS Growth Y+2+9%6

EPS Growth Y+3+7%6

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin21%8

Net Income Margin19%8

Free Cash Flow Margin18%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-0.610

Efficiency

ROE16%7

ROA11%9

Earnings Stability88

GEAR+VERY STRONG100

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)99

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)89

P/BV1.68

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd59

EV/EBIT Fwd710

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield9.8%9

Dividend Yield3.8%8

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-5%5

3 month return-15%2

YTD return-4%4

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh76%4

1 year return+5%5

Long term

3 year return-12%2

5 year return-30%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.48

Volatility24%8

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin18%8

Free Cash Flow Yield9.8%9

Quality

ROCE16%8

Earnings Stability88

Net Debt/EBITDA-0.610

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ZTOZTO Express (Cayman)

Revenue FY25$7.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG70 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+11%7

Revenue, next 1Y+23%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+12%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+10%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+32%9

EPS growth, FY27E+9%6

EPS growth, FY28E+7%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 70% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 11%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 60% of companies worldwide.7/10

Revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

Revenue grew 11%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 12%/yr.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 9%/yr vs revenue 12%/yr).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

ZTOZTO Express (Cayman)

Total return Current82.3%

Price return Current64.0%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK15 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-5%5

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-4%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high76%4

1-year return+5%5

3-year return-12%2

5-year return-30%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

It's up 5% over the past year, but 24% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-5%) and so far this year (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-12% over three years and -30% over five), behind 80% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-15%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on ZTO Express. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ZTOZTO Express (Cayman)

Revenue FY25$7.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG70 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+11%7

Revenue, next 1Y+23%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+12%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+10%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+32%9

EPS growth, FY27E+9%6

EPS growth, FY28E+7%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 70% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 11%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 60% of companies worldwide.7/10

Revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

Revenue grew 11%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 12%/yr.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 9%/yr vs revenue 12%/yr).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

ZTOZTO Express (Cayman)

Total return Current82.3%

Price return Current64.0%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK15 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-5%5

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-4%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high76%4

1-year return+5%5

3-year return-12%2

5-year return-30%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

It's up 5% over the past year, but 24% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-5%) and so far this year (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-12% over three years and -30% over five), behind 80% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-15%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on ZTO Express. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community